Post by account_disabled on Mar 9, 2024 3:35:02 GMT -5
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies are expected to grow by 6.9% in 2022, before declining to 3.7% and 2.4% in 2023 and 2024, according to the Bank's new report. World.
The easing of pandemic restrictions and positive developments in the hydrocarbon market drove a strong recovery in 2021 and 2022 across the GCC. In turn, the strong economic recovery and bottlenecks in the supply chain raised inflation in the area to an average rate of 2.1% in 2021, compared to 0.8% in 2020.
Supported by higher hydrocarbon prices, the GCC region is expected to post strong surpluses in 2022 and continue to increase in the medium term. In total, the regional fiscal balance is expected to register a surplus of 5.3% of GDP in 2022 - the first surplus since 2014 - while the external balance surplus reaches 17.2% of GDP.
Estimates suggest that the Ecuador Mobile Number List total GDP of the GCC countries will approach $2 trillion in 2022. If the GCC countries continue to do business as usual, their combined GDP would grow to around $6 trillion in 2050. However According to the World Bank, if these countries applied a green growth strategy that would help and accelerate their economic diversification, GDP could grow to more than 13 trillion dollars in 2050.
However, in the current context, a reduction in oil production would not only increase the risk of slower economic growth, but could also reduce projected fiscal and external surpluses in the near term.
Inflation is expected to pick up in 2022 in most GCC countries, but remains much lower compared to other regions.
The good prospects for the Gulf countries contrast with the forecasts for the rest of the world economy: the International Monetary Fund has on several occasions cut its global growth forecast for 2023 and has warned of a serious situation of rising costs of living, since the world economy continues to be affected by the war in Ukraine, the accentuation of global inflation and the slowdown in China.
The Fund kept its global economic estimate for this year at 3.2%, but lowered next year's forecast to 2.7%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the July forecast.
After a period of low inflation and episodes of deflation, inflation is expected to reach 3.3% during 2022, before moderating to 2.5% in the medium term," the report states.
For Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the Arab world, growth is forecast at 8.3% in 2022 before moderating to 3.7% and 2.3% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
The oil sector will continue to be the main driver of the kingdom's economic growth.
On the other hand, the UAE, the Arab world's second-largest economy, is estimated to grow 5.9% in 2022 before moderating to 4.1% in 2023, as slowing global demand slows expansion due to tightening of financial conditions, according to the World Bank.
In the case of Kuwait, the Monetary Fund forecasts indicate an acceleration to 8.5% in 2022, before slowing to an average of 2.5% in 2023 and 2024.
Qatar is also expected to grow 4% this year, thanks to the strength of the hydrocarbon sector and the strengthening of the tourism sector, as the country hosts the FIFA World Cup, which begins on November 20.
For Bahrain, an improvement to 3.8% in 2022, driven mainly by the non-hydrocarbon sector, the full reopening of the economy and a more robust manufacturing sector and in the case of Oman a growth of 4.5% in 2022, before moderating to an average of 3.2% between 2023 and 2024.
In sum, the recovery of the economy will be driven by energy prices, the expansion of oil and gas production and structural reforms, according to the World Bank.